This study conducts an econometric analysis of the accounting and banking determinants influencing trade balance fluctuations in emerging economies, with a focus on various macroeconomic factors. Utilizing data from credible sources, including the World Development Indicators and national statistics (spanning from 1990 to 2024), the research employs advanced econometric techniques, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test for stationarity and the Johansen test for cointegration. The results of the cointegration test indicate a rejection of the null hypothesis, which states that there are no cointegrating vectors. The trace statistic of 219.6742 exceeds the 5% critical value of 117.7082, with a P-value of less than 5%. Similar findings support the presence of cointegrating relationships among the variables in the long run.

According to the vector error correction method, the coefficients of adjustment are -0.675934% for the subsidy rate, -0.564562% for the economic growth rate, and -2.122484% for terms of trade, illustrating the necessary shifts to achieve sustainable equilibrium in imbalanced situations.
The findings reveal significant relationships among variables such as the exchange rate, terms of trade, and economic growth, elucidating their impacts on trade balance dynamics. These in sights provide valuable implications for policymakers seeking to enhance trade balance stability and promote sustainable economic growth.